After a tense 57 laps during the Qatar Grand Prix, Max Verstappen emerged as the winner. A frustrated Oscar Piastri finished in P2 with Lando Norris finishing in P4 after an early safety car shook up the order.
Following a crash from Nico Hulkenberg, the McLaren F1 team chose not to pit either of their drivers under an early safety car, despite the mandatory 2 pit stop rule in Qatar. Virtually every other car took the opportunity to make a pit stop. This ultimately led to Verstappen’s win and was the downfall of Piastri and Norris.
Team Principal Andrea Stella highlighted the thought process behind the strategy, stating:
“It was a decision not to pit. We did not expect everyone else to pit. When you are the lead car, you do not know what everyone else will do. It would have been a loss to Lando with the double stack, but the decision was due to not expecting everyone else to pit.”
Following a double disqualification in Las Vegas, McLaren needed to capitalize on every opportunity to secure maximum points. Instead, their poor pit stop strategy allowed Max Verstappen to move ahead of Oscar Piastri in the Driver’s Championship.
Interestingly, this result comes after Verstappen commented earlier this week that his championship bid is only alive due to the “failures of others” rather than pure performance from him and Red Bull Racing.
Breaking down every Championship scenario headed into Abu Dhabi
The Driver’s Championship has been blown wide open, with Lando Norris, Max Verstappen, and Oscar Piastri all in the hunt heading into the final race of the season.
| Driver | Pre-weekend total | Qatar Sprint | Qatar Grand Prix | Weekend Total | Total |
| Lando Norris | 390 | +6 | +12 | 18 | 408 |
| Max Verstappen | 366 | +5 | +25 | 30 | 396 |
| Oscar Piastri | 366 | +8 | +18 | 26 | 392 |
Let’s break down what the road to victory looks like for all three drivers.
Lando Norris
Although his lead has shrunken considerably, Lando Norris is still best positioned to win the Driver’s Championship and can secure it by finishing no lower than 3rd place. He can also win even if he scores no points in Abu Dhabi, depending on the positions of Verstappen and Piastri. Here are all possible winning scenarios for Lando Norris:
| Lando Norris’ Race Position | Max Verstappen’s Race Position | Oscar Piastri’s Race Position |
| 1 | – | – |
| 2 | – | – |
| 3 | – | – |
| 4 | P2 or lower | – |
| 5 | P2 or lower | – |
| 6 | P2 or lower | P2 or lower |
| 7 | P2 or lower | P2 or lower |
| 8 | P3 or lower | P2 or lower |
| 9 | P4 or lower | P2 or lower |
| 10th or lower | P4 or lower | P3 or lower |
Max Verstappen
Despite an impressive comeback over the last several races, Max Verstappen will need help from Norris and Piastri to secure a championship win. If Verstappen wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he will need Norris to finish no higher than P4 to win the championship. Verstappen can still win if he finishes no lower than P3, with a poorer showing from Norris and Piastri. Here are all possible winning scenarios for Max Verstappen:
| Max Verstappen’s Race Position | Lando Norris’ Race Position | Oscar Piastri’s Race Position |
| 1 | P4 or lower | – |
| 2 | P8 or lower | P2 or lower |
| 3 | P9 or lower | P2 or lower |
Oscar Piastri
Heading into Abu Dhabi, Oscar Piastri’s championship hopes have never looked more grim. Piastri must finish within the top 2 to keep his bid alive.
If Piastri wins in Abu Dhabi, Norris must finish P6 or lower. However, if Piastri finishes in P2, Norris cannot finish higher than P10, and Verstappen cannot finish higher than P4.
| Oscar Piastri’s Race Position | Lando Norris’ Race Position | Max Verstappen’s Race Position |
| 1 | P6 or lower | – |
| 2 | P10 or lower | P4 or lower |
In other words, after leading the title fight for much of the season, Piastri will need a dominant race and a lot of luck to secure the title.
One last chance for the title
It’s hard to remember the last time there was such a fierce 3-way battle for the Driver’s Championship.
Looking ahead to Abu Dhabi, there is no room for error for the top 3 drivers, and everyone will surely be pushing to their absolute maximum. Every moment matters now.
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