Back in late March, the case for Oliver Bearman in F1 Fantasy was basically airtight. He was leading the PPM leaderboard at 6.28 points per million (PPM), ahead of Liam Lawson at 5.80, gaining $0.6M in value after each of the first three races, and sitting sixth overall in total fantasy points, all from an $8.6M price tag. He was also the most-owned driver in the game at 61%. It wasn’t even a debate. Bearman was the pick, and the numbers backed it up every step of the way.

So what happened?

A lot, actually. And if he’s still in your lineup without a second thought, it might be time to give him one.

The season so far

The first two races set high expectations. A P7 in Melbourne and a P5 in Shanghai, plus that sprint point, had Bearman scoring 34 fantasy points in China alone. He was doing all of Haas’s heavy lifting too, accounting for all 17 of the team’s Championship points through two races, while Esteban Ocon worked through a tough start to the season.

Then came Suzuka. A frightening crash triggered the game’s stiffest penalty and left him with -14 fantasy points on the weekend. The saving grace was that his Australian and China results were so strong—2.7 PPM and 4.3 PPM respectively—he only needed to avoid scoring below -23 points to still gain $0.6M. He managed that, but just barely, and the buffer was gone heading to Miami.

Miami brought a DNF. Monaco was arguably worse. Front wing damage on lap one sent him to the back, and he retired on lap 30 after spending the better part of the race lapped by the field. He called it a “horrible day.” That’s Monaco being Monaco to some extent, but it was still a loss on the fantasy scoresheet, and his second retirement in four races.

Barcelona hasn’t exactly screamed “bounce-back” either. Haas brought upgrades to Canada that haven’t properly translated to pace yet, and Bearman himself described his car in FP3 as “the worst car I’ve ever driven in my life.” He still managed Q2, a genuine testament to what he can do in a tricky car, but the team is now seventh in the constructors’ standings at just 21 points, with the Alpine boys creeping up the order.

How F1 Fantasy price changes have altered Bearman’s value

This is the part that matters most for your lineup decisions.

The original case for Bearman was built on two things: he was underpriced relative to his output, and he sat below the $18.5M threshold where assets can gain up to $0.6M per race weekend. He started the season at just $7.4M and grew to $9.2M by the time Miami rolled around, leading the grid with $1.8M value gained. If you’ve held him until then, that budget growth was the whole point, cementing him as one of the best F1 Fantasy value picks on the grid.

But here’s the thing about PPM at midseason: it’s a forward-looking metric, not a trophy case. The 6.28 PPM that made Bearman the obvious pick in March was built on two races. Those points don’t score again. The question is whether the next few races look anything like Australia and China. And right now, the honest answer is probably not.

After three races, he ranked tenth overall in fantasy points. His two DNFs since then have done real damage to that season-long average. And while Ocon has quietly found his footing, putting together consistent results and scoring 56 fantasy points through the early part of the season, the team’s fantasy value as a whole is harder to project than it was in March when both drivers seemed to have clear scoring routes every weekend.

Racing Bulls have also entered the conversation in a bigger way. Liam Lawson was averaging 16.7 fantasy points per race weekend as of late April, sixth overall in the F1 Fantasy standings, while Arvid Lindblad has been a genuine surprise package. The midfield has shuffled, and Bearman is no longer the automatic answer in that price bracket.

So, should you drop him?

Not necessarily, but the “lock and forget” approach definitely doesn’t apply anymore.

If Bearman gets a clean weekend in Austria and Haas show signs that the upgrade package is starting to click, there’s still a case for holding through the summer. He’s a good driver who can clearly squeeze more out of that Haas than most on the grid could, and the results haven’t all been on him. Monaco was a lap one incident, and Suzuka was a crash indirectly caused by the unpolished new regulations. Bad weekends happen.

But if you’re sitting on a transfer and looking for more consistent points from your budget slot, this is probably the most honest it’s felt all season to consider the move. His current price of $8.2M (before Barcelona) means the budget growth story has largely played out. The PPM case at that price requires him to return to his early-season scoring form, and recent races suggest that’s not a given while the Haas upgrades are still finding their feet.

Hold if you believe in the Haas trajectory and can afford to wait. Move on if you need points now.

Either way, it’s no longer a no-brainer, and that alone is worth paying attention to.