McLaren is hot off the heels of a two-three finish in Miami, their strongest finish yet this season. While it gives the team much confidence in their fight to defend the Constructors’ Championship, the threat from Mercedes is clear. Despite Mercedes taking the win in all four races so far, will McLaren’s momentum and their latest upgrades give them their first win of 2026 this weekend in Montreal?

Circuit characteristics

The track layout at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve comprises a sequence of straights linked by tight chicanes and a hairpin. A good front-end on your car will reward you through the chicanes, and traction out of slow corners will give you an edge over the competition. McLaren has historically capitalized on these advantages.

Lando Norris is going into this weekend with confidence, speaking of the circuit, saying, “We… know it’s a track that suits us and in the past has not suited the Mercedes quite so well.”

New upgrades incoming to Montreal

After rolling out phase one of its recent upgrades in Miami, McLaren is bringing phase two to Montreal this weekend. In addition to changes to the floor and bodywork, the upgrade features a brand-new front wing design. The new wing should result in “improved aerodynamic load delivery,’ something this circuit will reward if implemented effectively.

Norris did add that while the new upgrades are noteworthy, fans ought to temper their expectations: “I know we’re bringing upgrades, but in Formula One it’s too easy to judge things over one race. You need to see how you are over a number of races and different styles of track: street circuits, hot tracks, cold tracks, tight and twisty, fast circuits.”

Mercedes has upgrades of their own

In contrast to McLaren’s two-phase upgrade approach, Mercedes has opted to put all its efforts into a single upgrade package debuting this weekend. The W17 is receiving a new front wing, which should improve airflow to the car’s rear while improving downforce. Additional tweaks to the car’s floor and winglets will also be put to the test.

Despite his remarks about Mercedes’ shaky past at this circuit, he does acknowledge that in more recent years, they’ve found some success: “Yet they’re still very fast, and we’re going to go to a track that Mercedes have probably been the best at over the last five, six years. So, we have to wait and see.”

Potential for chaos

Looking back at last year’s outing at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, Norris’s collision with Oscar Piastri late in the race cost him a race finish, losing points for the team overall. Very notably, this circuit has seen more safety car deployments in F1 history than any other circuit on the calendar, more than 40 deployments in total across races from 1978 through 2025!

The chaotic potential of this track is due to the circuit’s design, as it is surrounded by concrete walls and guardrails with virtually no runoff areas. More modern circuits are designed with large gravel and grass traps that don’t punish driver mistakes as much as this one does.

All of the above, paired with the unpredictable nature of this year’s new regulations, make for a potentially eventful race weekend, as teams continue to develop their cars for optimal results throughout the season.

Positive outlook for McLaren going into this weekend

McLaren is going into this weekend with strong potential for their first win of the season. Their car is poised for a solid finish if their upgrades can deliver results along with their momentum coming out of Miami.

Mercedes isn’t going to let them take P1 without a fight, however. They are coming to Montreal with upgrades of their own, and we will have to see if they’re enough to keep their win streak going for one more race.