With the first season of the new regulations underway, all the teams are looking to make their mark on this new era. Of the 11 teams on the grid, Mercedes has pulled ahead. George Russell and teammate Kimi Antonelli secured back-to-back one-two finishes in Melbourne and Shanghai, plus a win at the Sprint in China.

2014 and 2026 both mark the start of a new era in F1 following sweeping regulation changes. Such changes typically reset the grid in terms of dominant teams. With a strong showing so far, fans may be asking: Is this the beginning of another period of Mercedes F1 dominance, like what we saw in the 2014 season?

What the numbers say so far

It’s clear Mercedes is having a great start to the first season of the new era, so let’s look at the numbers. In Australia, Russell’s qualifying time was 0.785s faster than Isack Hadjar’s Red Bull, the nearest non-Mercedes car.

Antonelli’s performance in China is especially noteworthy, as his pole position makes him the youngest pole sitter in F1 history and the second-youngest grand prix winner behind Max Verstappen.

Historically, Mercedes was similarly dominant at the start of the new hybrid regulations in 2014. Nico Rosberg won Australia by over 26 seconds from the nearest non-Mercedes car, Kevin Magnussen’s McLaren. They went on to win 16 of the 19 races that season.

Where is their edge coming from?

The edge Mercedes has so far isn’t simply derived from one sole element, but rather a combination of several factors. Power unit performance, energy recovery, and an effective chassis with good balance reinforce each other to produce the results we’ve seen so far. Russell has noted that the chassis has been underreported compared to the engine and that it felt great to drive from the first day.

Mercedes’ energy recovery strategy leverages “super clipping,” which is notably different than competitors like Ferrari, who use the slower lift-and-coast method of harvesting. Cars that opt to use super clipping extend the braking phase deeper into corners. Drivers risk understeering with this technique if their car’s chassis and balance aren’t tuned correctly.

Is this a repeat of 2014, or is it something different?

The team’s results so far have led some to speculate whether or not this could be a repeat of their 2014 dominance. Jacques Villeneuve doesn’t seem to think we’re in for a case of déjà vu, saying that “it’s a dominance, but it’s not huge. It’s not like 2014 where there was more than a second and they still had boost to pump up. And other cars have the Mercedes engine as well,” in a statement to Sky Sports Germany.

One of those customer teams he is referencing is McLaren. While they have acknowledged a 0.5s to 1s gap behind Mercedes after Melbourne, they have also identified specific addressable issues to help close the gap in the races ahead.

Ferrari has secured two podiums and two P4 finishes after the first two rounds. They are clearly competitive enough to fight for wins in the coming weeks, so I wouldn’t count them out of giving the silver arrows a run for their money as well.

What about the drivers?

Going into the 2014 season, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg were experienced grand prix winners (22 and three, respectively). When looking at Russell and Antonelli collectively, they have less experience winning races compared to their 2014 counterparts. With five wins for Russell and zero for Antonelli before the start of the year, the perceived gap in accolades is less pronounced than it was 12 years ago.

While Antonelli is fresher to the grid than most, his first grand prix win in China signals a strong start to what could be an excellent season for the Italian driver. Russell would be considered to be the lead driver on the team going into this season, but the coming races could shake that dynamic up if Antontelli outperforms him.

Will this be the return of Mercedes’ F1 dominance?

Mercedes certainly makes a compelling case for a new season of dominance, but with just two races in the books, it is too soon to call. To their credit, it seems like they have done a solid job at preparing for this season, unlike some other teams on the grid (looking at you, Aston Martin). Rival teams like McLaren have a clear focus for improvement, which is more promising than scrambling to figure out what’s going wrong.

In terms of driver dynamics, the Hamilton-Rosberg rivalry was a key driver behind the team’s performance on track in 2014 and beyond. Russell and Antontelli’s relationship, on the other hand, while not exactly a rivalry, will likely colour their results this season as well.

For me, the difference between a clean sweep for Mercedes this year and a competitive season will come down to the competition. If McLaren, Ferrari, and others can work out their kinks sooner rather than later, we may be in for quite the interesting start to the new era.