Red Bull Racing is one of the only teams that has yet to confirm their drivers for the 2026 season. Max Verstappen is the only driver that the team has currently locked in, with the second Red Bull seat and both Racing Bulls seats still to be allocated.

So far, there are four candidates that are vying for those seats: Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson, Isack Hadjar are the three drivers who raced for Redd Bull this year, with Arvid Lindblad emerging as the external option for a seat, likely with Racing Bulls.

Of the four names, Tsunoda is the most interesting. He replaced Lawson at Red Bull this year, moving up after just two races, but he has struggled in the car. Through 18 races, he has finished in points just six times and retired once. Not great.

However, he clearly has had moments of brilliance, and given his experience, you may like his pedigree more than any of the others. Let’s dive into both sides of the argument.

The case to keep Yuki Tsunoda at Red Bull for 2026

It’s easy to forget Tsunoda’s pedigree as a driver. He leapt from the Japanese F4 to F1 in four seasons, finishing third in F2 in 2020 while racing for Carlin. And while his success in F1 didn’t come immediately, he has shown that he has all the qualities and capabilities to be a driver in this race.

The Red Bull second seat is a cursed spot, which has claimed the careers of drivers well before Tsunoda got it. The car has been built to suit the unique style of Max Verstappen, and any driver who takes the second seat struggles unless they are able to race the way that he does.

However, Tsunoda is starting to show that maybe he can adapt to that seat. Last year in the Racing Bulls seat, he ended with 30 points and a highest finish of seventh overall in Australia, Miami, and Brazil, this year, he finished sixth in Azerbaijan, and has finished in the points in three of his last six races.

If Red Bull changes their driver, and Yuki is left out, whoever takes the spot will have a learning curve to get used to the way that the car drives, and will probably struggle to get the most out of it. You saw this with the way Lawson struggled in his audition with Red Bull. You’ll likely see something similar with Hadjar if he earns the role as well.

Red Bull has Verstappen, who is one of the best drivers of all time, but will need to find a reliable second driver who can finish in the points regularly if they are to dethrone McLaren and Ferarri for the Constructors Championship. Yuki gives you that chance.

Off the track, it’s well-known that Tsunoda has strong ties to Honda, and Honda has historically had strong ties to Red Bull, and while that partnership is ending in 2026, Tsunoda still has immense appeal to Red Bull. He is a favourite in Suzuka, and the endorsements and sponsorships that he brings are massive. Losing him may risk some of those partnerships.

The case against Yuki Tsunoda staying at Red Bull in 2026

At the end of the day, Red Bull’s success depends on two things. Max Verstappen’s success as a driver in the Drivers’ Championship, and finding a partner to complement Max Verstappen to help them win the Constructors Championship. Is Tsunoda that guy?

Finishing outside of the top-10 in the Drivers Championship this year is not good enough for Red Bull. Currently in the top ten are the two McLarens, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, the two Ferraris, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc, and the two Mercedes, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. Even with Verstappen pushing for the Drivers Championship, Red Bull is getting 321 of their 346 points from him alone. That’s not good enough to win the Constructors.

Of all the Drivers for both Red Bull and Racing Bulls, Tsunoda has won the fewest points, with even Lawson recording more. Mind you, the distance in the mushy middle between Carlos Sainz at 11th and Tsunoda at 17th is just ten points, the fact that he’s not in the top-10 is not good for Red Bull.

Ironically, the driver who is second of the four drivers currently between the two teams is Hadjar, who has 39 points. Will it be an adjustment to drive in the Red Bull seat for Hadjar? Absolutely, but he may give you a better chance of winning the Constructors Championship than Yuki does.

On top of that, with Honda’s partnership with Red Bull Racing ending at the end of the season, the argument to keep Tsunoda gets weaker. The two have always been tied, and there has been a certain amount of push from the engine manufacturer to keep him in the team. However, what reason is there for them to keep Tsunoda around now?

While Red Bull likely loses some endorsements and sponsorships if they do move on from Tsunoda, both Lawson and Hadjar bring their own markets and characteristics that can be marketed to grow Red Bull’s brand.

The biggest thing for the Austrian group will be to find a driver that can reliably finish in the top-10 and help Max pick up more points on route to a Constructors Championship. Yuki may not be that guy.

What makes the most sense for Red Bull?

Tsunoda came out this week saying he thinks the job is his, saying “I’m confident in what I’ve done and the situation I’m in”. But should he be so confident? There is an internal struggle happening in Red Bull over what to do with the second seat, and Tsunoda will need to do more to completely convince Laurent Mekies and team that he is the guy.

Frankly, Tsunoda has not done enough to impress as of yet, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back at Racing Bulls or out of the team entirely.

While it could go any way, I would give Tsunoda a seat at Racing Bulls for next year and elevate Hadjar to Red Bull with Verstappen. He has earned the role alongside Verstappen, and gives you the greatest opportunity to win this season. Sure, he has had some bumps in his rookie year, but he has quietly been one of the better rookies on the grid.

Keep Tsunoda in Racing Bulls for 2026. This gives him a seat in F1, which he deserves and also takes the pressure away from him as the seat two at Red Bull. Allow him to race with less pressure, keep him in the fold, and use him if Hadjar struggles like Lawson did this season.

Seat four could go to either Lawson or to newcomer Lindblad. The latter put up the sixth fastest time in practice in Mexico City while driving Verstappen’s car. He also performed better than Tsunoda, but a tenth of a second.

Lawson has really struggled this season, including five DNFs. He did finish fifth in Azerbaijan, second among the four Red Bull drivers, and that is the one reason he sits ahead of Tsunoda at 15th in the Drivers Championship.

It’s a toss up for the other Racing Bulls seat, but as things stand now, it makes sense for Tsunoda to race with Racing Bulls in 2026.